The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits has risen to its highest point since late 2021, and it could mean something isn’t just right about the economy. According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s latest data, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment reached 1.919 Million during the week ending May 17. Both advance claims and moving averages are at an all time high since November 2021 [Source – DoL release, refer page 1]
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What exactly is this?
It’s a government-run program that provides temporary weekly payments to people who have lost their jobs through no fault of their own — typically due to layoffs, company downsizing, or business closures.
The money helps them cover basic expenses while they look for a new job. UI is funded by employer-paid payroll taxes and is managed by each state.
New Claims
Each week, the U.S. Department of Labor reports “initial claims,” representing new applications for unemployment benefits. Data here is of two types – seasonally adjusted and non adjusted.
For the week ending May 24, these seasonally adjusted claims totaled 240,000. This figure rose by 14,000 from the prior week’s revised level of 226,000. These weekly numbers may offer a quick snapshot of new joblessness entering the system.
Ongoing Unemployment Trends
“Insured unemployment” counts those actively receiving benefits after filing their initial claim. For the week ending May 17, this seasonally adjusted figure climbed to 1.919 Million. This significant increase means it is the highest level recorded since November 13, 2021. The corresponding insured unemployment rate for the same week slightly increased to 1.3 percent.
In account for seasonal fluctuations, this is a 100,000+ increase since the past year.
State-Level Claims
Across the four weeks of data, consistent patterns emerged in state-level unemployment where states like New Jersey, California, Washington, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania frequently reported the highest insured unemployment rates.
While individual state initial claims saw weekly fluctuations, with some experiencing significant increases or decreases in particular weeks, the top states for ongoing unemployment remained largely consistent.
States with the highest insured unemployment rates included:
- New Jersey – 2.2%
- California – 2.1%
- Washington – 2.1%
- Rhode Island – 1.9%
- Massachusetts, DC, New York – 1.8%
On the positive side, the largest decreases were in Virginia (-1,277), Michigan
(-1,192), California (-686), Florida (-547), and Massachusetts (-399).
Source – DoL Press Release [ Ref page 3 ] for latest week, S1,S2,S3 for monthly data.
Federal/Veteran Claims
Initial claims for Federal Employees (UCFE -Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees ) increased to 610 for the week ending May 17. Contrast this to the previous year, where only half of the initial claims were made at 338 claims per week. This means, almost twice the number of federal employees are seeking compensatory benefits for unemployment in 2025 than in 2024 !
Initial claims under UCX (Unemployment Compensation for Ex-Service members / Veterans) remained more or less the same at 370 per week as compared to 368/week in the past year.
Source – DoL release page 4
The Raw Numbers
Source – DoL Release refer page 2 & 4
Looking beyond the seasonally adjusted data, the unadjusted figures, which represent the actual count of claims filed, offer a stark view of the situation. For the week ending May 24, 2025, actual initial claims totaled 212,506.
This was an increase of 10,742 from the previous week and occurred despite seasonal factors predicting a decrease of 1,131, indicating that the uptick in new filings is not merely a statistical quirk or seasonal anomaly. Similarly, for the week ending May 17, unadjusted insured unemployment rose by 7,122 to 1,786,881, running contrary to an expected seasonal decrease.
Final Opinions
A thousand words may be said, but the fact that almost twice the number of people working in the Federal space filing for unemployment benefits says a lot about a country’s economy. Usually, the government sector and its jobs are said to be the safest for first world countries. The fact that these have doubled in the USA is worrying.
What could be even more worrying ? This might seep into the private sector as well. Only time can tell.
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